Covid-19, Six Months Statistics

March 2020 was the official beginning of the Covid-19 Pandemic event. We are now in early October, six (6) months into the pandemic, and with six months data there is statistically significant information that we can step out of the box and see the current standing of these various public health policies. We have seen different nations implement various policies on quarantines that range from short term enhanced community quarantines to some more draconian lockdown of its entire borders. These have produced respective outcomes that can now be looked into and to reflect on in advising future actions on best Public Health practices. Thankfully, the virus is not that deadly. It has been rated slightly stronger than the annual flus of the past decades and that can be measured by the survival rates, now public record. (see table posted by Fox News)

The short story to be told is how nations that engaged in the least restrictions on public mobility, after six months are now enjoy having the lowest daily death rates of all nations. Sweden is the first country to see that side of this virus experience. Other nations locked down for some six weeks and had a resurgence as public mobility resumed, but after 2- 3 months drastically decreased the daily death rate and flattening the curve. Nations with the strictest quarantine policies continue to experience a roller coaster experience reflecting how that interfered with the herd immunity seen in other nations that peaked the number of active cases earlier. We can see this play out in these six countries, France, Italy, India, Philippines, UAE and Sweden.

Graph March-September daily deaths	Daily Death rates graphed per nation here
	FRANCE: One of the earlier nations to drastically reduce restrictive quarantine and underwent much criticism by several sources. This was followed by three weeks of rapid increase in infection rates, but that was followed by three weeks of gradual drop of infection rates. It took only three months to start flattening the curve reflecting both rate of infection and rate of deaths.
	ITALY: On the other side, Italy refused to lockdown and received much criticism for that. The infection rate peaked after several weeks and the death rate followed closely behind. By the end of May, just three months into the pandemic, Italy had already flattened the curve. They were warned of a second wave of infections, but as of now, that has not happened. Reaching herd immunity may not have been reached yet, but they are way ahead.
	INDIA: (infection rates are graphed here) The near draconian quarantine restriction was the approach elected by India, which remained in enhanced quarantine for three full months. When restrictions were partly lifted, the infection rate skyrocketed. Even community focused enhanced lockdowns only temporarily lowered the infection rate. However again after three months, with 50+% of the public being mobilized, we see that three months later they are peaking the infection rate. Another six weeks will bring flattening of the curve.
	PHILIPPINES: A true draconian quarantine restriction policy was the Philippines choice. Four full months of massive restrictions, even threatened Marshall law, only delayed the inevitable. When 50% of the population was allowed to return to work after four months, the infection rate went ballistic. The death rate did not follow, but they remain in a state of rolling enhanced to modified quarantine state. When restrictions like these are imposed, herd immunity remains elusive and community economic desperation is looming.
	UAE: A moderate response by a moderate thinking leadership elected to not remain in quarantine past three weeks. After only one month the infection and death rate drastically dropped. Other than some foreign worker influences on infection rates, and a policy of permitting most foreign workers to remain active but under social distancing guidelines, the pandemic is simmering at a low level. Herd immunity is more challenging to achieve with such a diverse work force making up 80% of the population.
	SWEDEN: The true hero of this pandemic event, Sweden did not entertain the notion to quarantine entire populations, but restrict that to those infected. The way a quarantine is intended to be applied. They had a massive infection rate peaking after two months with proportionate death rates gradually decreasing over the next two months.  Now at six months the pandemic is basically over in Sweden having allowed herd immunity to happen naturally.

As of October 2020, Sweden and Italy with a flattened curve for months now had a .006% mortality rate (99.994% survival). France reports only .005% while the Philippines, still in enhanced and rolling quarantines, has not come close to flattening the curve reports mortality of 6,100 out of 110,000,000, or .000055% (99.995% survival rate) which is half way between these other three nations already having flattened the curve. Seems to me that if quarantines continue at this rate, the Philippines could yield the world’s highest mortality rate BECAUSE of the restrictive quarantines. Do the math!

The real tragedy in this pandemonium is of course the loss of life, which these are unavoidable, but then we have the additional lives lost due to hospitals refusing entry for non-Covid cases for a while, we have suicides from economic desperation, and families torn from extensive quarantines, business closures and lost incomes, lost employments from downsizing, etc. That is why I refer to this global event as more than a pandemic but an unequivocal pandemonium.

In times like this the average person feels like a small piece of wood on the ocean, at the mercy of elements we have no control over. When civil liberties are this severely violated, especially when there are ongoing quarantine imposed, maybe everybody elected or appointed just needs to be replaced and let’s start all over again, lessons learned.

My last thoughts about this six month review is the proverbial elephant in the room… NATURE CURES! For 99.99% of people who will just experience the inconvenience of being ill or sick a week or two, there is one thing we can all count on, and that is how you have a reliable immune system there working for you 24 hours a day, 7 days a week and 365 days a year. This isn’t the last new virus to hit mankind and without nature curing rate as awesome and fantastic as that is, none of us would be here as all our ancestors would have succumbed to something a long time ago.

Yours in Real Life,
docMIKE

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